The Big Move – Why The PSEi Is Poised To Scale New Heights
We should see a big move in the PSEi in the coming days. It seems that the market will attempt to break the 2,400 resistance level. My medium term target is for the PSEi to reach 2,750 – 2,800 levels.
Why am I bullish? Here are my arguments:
1.) Earnings – 1H06 corporate earnings came in better than expected. In the coming months, we would see an upward revision in earnings. Based on my estimate, earnings for 2006 should grow by at least 15-17% versus the earlier target of 10-12%.
2.) Peso at P48.0 – The Peso has appreciated by almost P3.0 since end July. I do think it will continue to appreciate towards P48.0. Please check my past post: http://bigbigtrade.blogspot.com/2006/03/peso-at-p480-here-we-come.html . The movement of the Peso is a leading indicator for the stock market. As it is, we should see some shifting of funds from US Dollar assets to the equities market.
3.) Positive funds flow – For the past one and half months, money has slowly creep back to the market. We have seen average daily value turnover reach P2.0bn. What is interesting is that for the past two weeks, average volume turnover rose to P2.5bn. This should signal that more money is waiting to be invested in the market.
Why am I bullish? Here are my arguments:
1.) Earnings – 1H06 corporate earnings came in better than expected. In the coming months, we would see an upward revision in earnings. Based on my estimate, earnings for 2006 should grow by at least 15-17% versus the earlier target of 10-12%.
2.) Peso at P48.0 – The Peso has appreciated by almost P3.0 since end July. I do think it will continue to appreciate towards P48.0. Please check my past post: http://bigbigtrade.blogspot.com/2006/03/peso-at-p480-here-we-come.html . The movement of the Peso is a leading indicator for the stock market. As it is, we should see some shifting of funds from US Dollar assets to the equities market.
3.) Positive funds flow – For the past one and half months, money has slowly creep back to the market. We have seen average daily value turnover reach P2.0bn. What is interesting is that for the past two weeks, average volume turnover rose to P2.5bn. This should signal that more money is waiting to be invested in the market.
posted by jack galt at
11:47 PM
0 Comments:
Post a Comment
<< Home